My Investment Thesis

Tempo de leitura: 4 minutos

Hello, this is Cain, and you’re listening to the proof of writing podcast.

Please remember, nothing on this podcast is intended as financial advice, and is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Crypto is highly volatile, so please do your own research, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

More than you can afford to lose. I don’t know about you, but I always found that last part a little funny, because what does that even really mean? How much can YOU afford to lose? I guess it depends on each person, which is exactly why no one should be taking financial advice from a stranger. Because everybody’s situation is different. We all have different goals, different time preferences, different risk appetites.

That’s why in spite of the title of this episode, I mean it when I say I’m not here to give anyone financial advice. Nobody, and I mean nobody, can see the future. Investing is about betting on uncertain outcomes based on incomplete information. In other words, we’re betting on probabilities, not certainties.

This is why everyone must decide for themselves what’s in their own best interest, because in the end, the only person responsible for your choices is you.

Now with that said, I see nothing wrong with sharing one’s own perspective with other people so long as it’s done with intellectual honesty. And that’s what I hope to do as I explain my reasoning for investing in crypto in general, and eCash specifically.

Let’s start with crypto in general. I’m not ashamed to admit that I bought my first Bitcoin purely out of fomo. I didn’t understand how it worked, let alone why it had value, but I bought it anyway just in case a small investment might become a huge investment within a few short years.

This is what’s called an asymmetric bet, the kind of bet where the potential upside is far greater than the potential downside. For example, a lotto ticket is an asymmetric bet, though not a very good one, because your odds of success are almost zero. Investing in startups is another kind of asymmetric bet, and it definitely has much better odds than buying lotto tickets. But the problem is not only do you have to be an accredited investor to participate, but unless you’re an insider or a VC, chances are you won’t get access to the really good opportunities. But crypto is different. In a way, it combines the kind of outsized returns that are possible in the startup world with the accessibility of the lotto.

I’m guessing for most people who invest in crypto, this is the main reason why, because they see it as a pathway to becoming rich. For the first time, regular people like you and me believe we have an opportunity to make the kind of life changing money that wasn’t previously available to us before. Money we can make not by gambling, but by investing in what could be the next big thing.

Of course this doesn’t mean all cryptocurrency investments are safe or fair. The world of crypto is full of scams, or semi-scams. There are also projects that are no different from start-ups in that only insiders or VCs were given early access to buy their tokens. But to me that’s not what crypto is about. It’s about democratizing finance and making it open to everyone.

But just because everyone’s invited doesn’t mean they’re going to attend. I know plenty of people who don’t own any crypto. They don’t understand it, or know how to use it, and see no purpose in it. Some are worried the government will ban it. That it’s too new, or it’s just a fad, and that it’s unrealistic to think people will want to deal with their own private keys or hardware wallets.

But I’m obviously not one of those people. To me crypto is here to stay. Governments can try and ban it, but I’m betting they won’t be able to. I believe too many people hold crypto now, or are the wives, or parents of people who do. Too many players are entering the arena. Players like Visa, and PayPal, and BlackRock. And I only see the trend continuing.

But I also understand that nothing is guaranteed. That there are still plenty of hurdles to overcome. Both technological and social. But that’s why I believe this market represents such a huge opportunity. They say when it comes to investing, you make money by seeing the value in something before everyone else does. Because once it becomes obvious to everybody, it’s too late. You’ve missed your opportunity.

I think eCash is the kind of project that people have yet to recognize how valuable it really is. And much like crypto in general, eCash has its fair share of challenges, but to me each of those challenges also represents a huge opportunity. Like the fact that XEC isn’t listed on any US exchanges like Coinbase or Kraken. While it’s not ideal, when and if it happens, it could act as a huge catalyst for eCash. Same goes for the fact that XEC isn’t natively supported on either the Trezor or Ledger hardware wallets, or Binance’s Trust wallet. But that’s not to say that eCash is simply waiting for the industry to recognize its worth. They are going to just keep building until the industry has no choice but to notice.

I’m confident because I’ve been following the work of Bitcoin ABC for the last six years. I’ve talked to them, I’ve interacted with them online, I’ve watched them respond to feedback and requests, and deliver on their promises.

The eCash project recently announced they’ve activated stealth mode. For people who don’t know what that means, it’s a term that comes from the start-up world. According to ChatGPT, when in stealth mode, a company avoids publicity and attention while it focuses on developing its products, refining its strategies, and preparing for a future launch.

I have no idea how long they’re going to remain in stealth mode, or what will be revealed when the time comes, but I have a feeling they won’t disappoint.

But again, that’s just me. You don’t have to believe what I believe. You don’t have to see the things I see. Because I’m not here to try and convince you of anything, I’m just here to tell you what I think, so that if I turn out to be right, maybe more of you will start listening.

As always, thank you for tuning in to the proof of writing podcast.