Cautiously Optimistic

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Over the past year, my net worth has dropped by 80%, I went from fantasizing about quitting my job to hoping I don’t get laid off, and the crypto market went from being on the verge of the so-called super-cycle to potentially facing a literal nuclear winter.

But for whatever reason, things don’t seem that bad.

Maybe it’s because it feels like I’ve been here before. The state of the crypto market today actually reminds me a lot of what it was like in early 2019, a few months after the crash caused by the BCH/BSV hash war. Except this time in place of the hash war we got the LUNA/3AC/Celsius trifecta.

It’s now been a few months and the volatility seems to have settled down, though of course there’s no way of knowing whether or not we’re going lower. Because if there’s one thing I’ve learned about crypto over these past few years, it’s that anything’s possible. Whether it’s people paying millions of dollars for a jpeg of a rock, or having $40B of market cap go to zero in the blink of an eye.

That’s why I wouldn’t dare tell you what’s going to happen next, but what I can say is that I’m feeling a lot more optimistic than I did in 2019. Sure there’s still plenty of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Whether it’s OFAC sanctions, or the never ending hacks, crypto seems to be facing an unprecedented amount of pressure these days. But it’s also gotten bigger than ever.

According to Triple-A.io, the number of people who own cryptocurrency has already surpassed 10% in many countries. If 10% of the people in a country own crypto, how many people in that country are married to someone who owns crypto, or has a son or daughter who holds crypto? What this tells me is that crypto is no longer just for computer scientists and cryptographers. We’re well past the innovator stage in the technology adoption life cycle, and I see it as a matter of time before crypto finally crosses the chasm.

More evidence that crypto isn’t going anywhere is the fact that pro-crypto politicians are gaining in popularity. Earlier this year, cryptocurrency issues were a major factor in the South Korean presidential election, which was won by Yoon Suk-Yeol, a former top prosecutor who promised to deregulate the crypto industry. Another example is that today, it was announced Rishi Sunak was set to become Britain’s new prime minister. Sunak previously tweeted that he wanted the United Kingdom to become a global hub for crypto adoption.

I’m not saying crypto is guaranteed to succeed, and I don’t have a crystal ball, but what I do have is the memory of what it was like the last time around.

Back then the Bitcoin Cash community was a mess. Instead of focusing on building, all the focus was on arguing. There was no funding to pay for developers, no agreement on the best path forward, and no hope that things were going to ever turn around.

What I see on crypto twitter today reminds me a lot of what it was like in the Bitcoin Cash community then. A whole lot of arguing, and not a lot of building. Fortunately, that isn’t what I’m seeing when it comes to the eCash ecosystem. Though XEC, like many coins, has fallen 90% from a year ago, the community is still active, the developers are busy building, and the roadmap is being executed as planned.

And while there’s no way of knowing what the future holds, what I can say is I’m still very optimistic about the future of XEC, and compared to a lot of other projects I’m seeing out there, it seems to be doing just fine.

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