So recently in the eCash telegram channel, there was quite a bit of arguing about how high people think the price of XEC can get, and how long it might take to get there. I don’t necessarily think this is a bad thing since it implies people have high expectations for the project, but I also believe in the mantra, “if you are arguing, you are losing”, which is why I’m not here to argue with anyone, but I thought it might be interesting for me to organize my own thoughts on the subject.
Before I continue, let me be clear that none of what I’m about to say is intended as financial advice but is entirely speculative and for informational and entertainment purposes only. Also, eCash represents a significant portion of my investment portfolio, so I obviously have high hopes for the project and I’d totally understand if anyone wants to dismiss anything I have to say on this topic. So please do your own research, don’t invest more than you can afford to lose, and last but not least, don’t blame others for your own investment decisions, because ultimately, whether you decide to invest in XEC or not is up to you and no one else.
I want to start by sharing a story. This was back in 2017, and I was thinking about buying Bitcoin for the first time, and you know one of the things that got me to finally push the buy button? A man by the name of John McAfee. For those of you who don’t know, John McAfee was a programmer and businessman who founded McAfee Associates, the company that offered the first commercial anti-virus software. Fast forward a couple of decades, and John McAfee is now this big Bitcoin guy, and in 2017, he announced that it was mathematically guaranteed Bitcoin would reach $1M by the end of 2020, and if it didn’t, he would cut off his own you know what and eat it on live TV. His prediction never came true, of course, and he has since passed away, rest in peace, but I’m guessing that his crazy prediction is what led to many people like myself discovering Bitcoin for the first time. Because honestly, had it not been for him, I might have never made the leap and bought my first Bitcoin, even if it was as the result of fomo.
Now I understand if you have a problem with John’s antics. I also understand there are many who think talking about price and making price predictions is in poor taste, but that’s where I disagree.
After all, for the vast majority of people, they see buying eCash or any other cryptocurrency as an investment, and why do people invest in anything? To make a return on their investment, of course. It’s no different when investing in public companies, or private start-ups. I’m guessing when founders pitch their business to VCs, they have slides that show projected revenues and expenses, what the size of the market is, how much their business could be worth in the future, and so on. Even Satoshi himself alluded to it when he said “It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on.” Then there was Hal Finney, whom many think might actually be Satoshi, who predicted that one day 1 Bitcoin could be worth up to $10M each.
I’ve heard people rebuke others for talking price targets, but I disagree with that approach. The truth of the matter is, we need people to buy into the eCash project in order for it to succeed, and I don’t think Bitcoin could have gotten as far as it has if not for enticing people with the possibility of becoming rich. On top of all that, there’s the fact that the entire Bitcoin protocol is backed by those same economic incentives and wouldn’t exist otherwise.
I’m sure you’ve seen those tweets telling you how much money you would have made if you’d invested in this or that stock at the IPO. I just saw one the other day about Tesla, and how if you’d invested $10,000 in the IPO back in 2010, your shares would now be worth $2M. As impressive as a 200x return in 14 years may sound, crypto investors have seen crazier returns over the years. Those who bought Bitcoin or Ethereum in the early days of those projects aren’t up 200x, they’re up 10,000X or more. Who doesn’t like the idea of risking $1000 to make $10 million dollars in less than 10 years. Well, that’s exactly what crypto has made possible for some people.
Of course, if that’s all there was to crypto, you’d be right to say it’s nothing but a giant scam, the biggest ponzi scheme in history, and there are certainly projects in the space that fall into that category. But this is offset by the projects that are hard at work on creating real value in the world, and these are the projects that make it possible to fathom such astronomical returns, which brings us to the eCash project, or XEC.
Like many of you, I want eCash to change civilization as we know it, but in order to do that, I also believe the price of eCash will have to go up dramatically in the coming years to have any chance of accomplishing that. Not just because people want to make money, but because of simple logic. The goal of eCash is to replace state backed currencies like the dollar and the euro, and in order to do that, the value of eCash will have to go up dramatically if it’s going to replace the value of those currencies.
So exactly how high do I think XEC can go? Do I think 1 XEC can reach $1? The answer is yes. Do I think it’s going to happen within the next year or two? Of course not.